RIYADH: Economic losses in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region due to epidemics will reach about $200 billion by the end of 2021, Arab News quoted the World Bank as telling.
The region’s GDP is projected to decline by 3.8 percent in 2020 and grow by 2.8 percent in 2021, a multilateral lender told in a report.
The cost of epidemic losses is compared to where the region’s GDP would have been if the epidemic had not occurred, the World bank said.
Thirteen of the region’s 16 countries will have a below quality of life in 2021 than their pre-Covid levels, and rehabilitation will depend on a quicker and more fair rollout of the vaccine.
Some sectors are more affected by epidemics than others. According to the International Air Transport Association, Middle Eastern airlines will have to bear a loss of $4.2 billion in 2021, down from $7.9 billion in 2020.
Losses will be 13.8% of income in 2021, an growth of 28.9% in 2020, but yet a historically inferior number. The IATA said demand would be 67.6 percent lower than the 2019 level, while capacity would contract by 58.9 percent.
Nevertheless, there is ground to be hopeful. The World Trade Organization (WTO) said on Monday that the resumption of global economic activity had lifted the pre-epidemic peak.
The WTO is now forecasting a 10.8% increase in global trade volume in 2021, up from 8% in March. The World Trade Organization said that in 2022, the growth will be 4.7 percent.
The strong annual increase rate of commercial goods in 2021 is mainly due to the fall in 2020 when trade ended in the second quarter.
